Superforecasting : (No. rekod 435)

000 -LEADER
fixed length control field 03723cam a2200433 i 4500
001 - CONTROL NUMBER
control field 18605242
003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER
control field KPN
005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION
control field 20211125111512.0
008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field 150506s2015 nyua b 001 0 eng
010 ## - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CONTROL NUMBER
LC control number 2015007310
020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
International Standard Book Number 9780804136693 (hardcover)
Canceled/invalid ISBN 9780804136709 (ebook)
040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE
Original cataloging agency DLC
Language of cataloging eng
Description conventions rda
Transcribing agency DLC
Modifying agency DLC
042 ## - AUTHENTICATION CODE
Authentication code pcc
050 00 - LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CALL NUMBER
Classification number HB3730
Item number .T47 2015
082 00 - DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER
Classification number 303.49
Edition number 23
084 ## - OTHER CLASSIFICATION NUMBER
Classification number BUS086000
-- SOC037000
-- PSY008000
Number source bisacsh
100 1# - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Tetlock, Philip E.
Fuller form of name (Philip Eyrikson),
Dates associated with a name 1954-
Relator term author.
245 10 - TITLE STATEMENT
Title Superforecasting :
Remainder of title the art and science of prediction /
Statement of responsibility, etc. Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner.
250 ## - EDITION STATEMENT
Edition statement First edition.
264 #1 - PRODUCTION, PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, MANUFACTURE, AND COPYRIGHT NOTICE
Place of production, publication, distribution, manufacture New York :
Name of producer, publisher, distributor, manufacturer Crown Publishers,
Date of production, publication, distribution, manufacture, or copyright notice [2015]
300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Extent 340 pages :
Other physical details illustrations ;
Dimensions 25 cm
336 ## - CONTENT TYPE
Content type term text
Source rdacontent
337 ## - MEDIA TYPE
Media type term unmediated
Source rdamedia
338 ## - CARRIER TYPE
Carrier type term volume
Source rdacarrier
504 ## - BIBLIOGRAPHY, ETC. NOTE
Bibliography, etc. note Includes bibliographical references (pages 291-328) and index.
520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc. "From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--
Assigning source Provided by publisher.
546 ## - LANGUAGE NOTE
Language note IN ENGLISH
650 #7 - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting.
Source of heading or term bisacsh
Topical term or geographic name entry element SOCIAL SCIENCE / Future Studies.
Source of heading or term bisacsh
Topical term or geographic name entry element PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology.
Source of heading or term bisacsh
Topical term or geographic name entry element Economic forecasting.
Topical term or geographic name entry element Forecasting.
700 1# - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Gardner, Dan,
Dates associated with a name 1968-
856 42 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS
Materials specified Cover image
Uniform Resource Identifier <a href="9780804136693.jpg">9780804136693.jpg</a>
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942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA)
Source of classification or shelving scheme
Koha item type Book
Suppress in OPAC No
Pemilik
Withdrawn status Lost status Source of classification or shelving scheme Damaged status Not for loan Collection code Home library Current library Shelving location Date acquired Total Checkouts Full call number Barcode Date last seen Price effective from Koha item type
          Non-fiction Perpustakaan Kementerian Perpaduan Malaysia Perpustakaan Kementerian Perpaduan Malaysia Non- Fiction Rack - Social sciences 25/11/2021   303.49 TET 2015 KPN21110119 25/11/2021 25/11/2021 Book